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PDF Ebook Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors by Richard Moheban (2009) Paperback, by Richard Moheban
PDF Ebook Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors by Richard Moheban (2009) Paperback, by Richard Moheban
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Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors by Richard Moheban (2009) Paperback, by Richard Moheban
PDF Ebook Debunking the Hyperinflation of Peter Schiff and the Gold Bugs: A Guide for Investors by Richard Moheban (2009) Paperback, by Richard Moheban
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Product details
Paperback: 176 pages
Publisher: Mile Sands Press; 1st edition (June 1, 2009)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1936069229
ISBN-13: 978-1936069224
Package Dimensions:
8.2 x 5.6 x 0.6 inches
Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
2.9 out of 5 stars
21 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#2,076,268 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
I read this book as a kind of counterpoint to "Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown" by Wiedemer, Wiedemer, and Spitzer. The latter book argues that the "dollar bubble" will certainly burst and burst hard, but they agree with Moheban (though without fully explaining why) that hyperinflation is an unlikely scenario, while suggesting, however, that we may see inflation at 100% annually or higher.I give the book 3 stars because the author makes a number of interesting observations and is informative, for example, about some of the matters of how currency is brought into circulation. However, the author holds a view I believe is simply mistaken: namely that money-supply inflation only happens when people's perceptions are that the money supply has increased and that money has lost some value. Chapter 5 contains the heart of his argument that money supply expansion doesn't necessarily lead to higher prices. On p. 83, Moheban says, "With no perception of cheapened, easily obtained money, there would be no particular reason to believe there would be money supply induced inflation." He argues that the 2 conditions for money supply increases leading to price increases are "(1) It must be widely observed that money is more plentiful," and "(2) The new money must be cheaper to obtain." I would agree with the author if he said these things could accelerate the process of inflation, but I do not think these conditions are necessary for inflation. There are objective economic mechanisms that do not rely on human perceptions of value that will cause prices to go up, as I will try to argue presently with an example.Let's say the U.S. government stealthily gives every American equally a $5,000 tax return from new Federal Reserve Notes. At an estimate of 300 million in the population, that amounts to an increase of $1.5 trillion: a substantial increase to the money supply. Admittedly an extreme case, but hopefully it can better illustrate the principle. Now we assume (perhaps unrealistically) that no one discusses this boon with anyone else and that shopkeepers don't suspect that the money supply has increased; they assume the government just made a mistake and they received a windfall return. Obviously everybody has a lot more currency in hand to spend and many people will spend more, going on a buying binge to celebrate the government's generosity.Now, let's take the perspective of a shopkeeper, say an Apple computer store owner. What's going to happen at the store? Well, Moheban is right: demand will definitely be stimulated. Orders will flow in and the Apple store will quickly find itself running short of stock. It will increase orders to further stock the shelves, but it will probably also raise the prices, both because of greed--the realization that they can make a killing with as many people as are ordering--and in order to keep their inventories from running out so soon. So the Apple store will raise its prices because it is swamped with demand. The owner has no idea that the money supply has increased. In this case, it is true the new money was easily obtained, but no one, including this owner, _perceives_ that money as a whole is now easier to obtain. All the owner perceives is that s/he has a surprisingly huge upsurge in demand that they cannot immediate meet with the current inventory.If this price hike is happening at the Apple store, you can imagine it is happening in a lot of other stores as well, in fact, across many market segments and the entire nation. It is true, you may have some business owners who had hardly any demand at all that might celebrate because they were able to suddenly sell their whole inventory and make an unusual profit. However, a lot of stores will be overwhelmed with the demand and will have to raise their prices. This is the essential causal mechanism of inflation, not a change in a person's psychological valuation of the currency unit. Of course, it is true that psychological perception of the money being cheaper and more plentiful can exacerbate this effect, leading shopkeepers to raise their prices in anticipation of future inflation (what Mohbeban calls "creeping inflation"), but the psychological shift is not needed for the inflation to manifest. This is why--a microeconomic reason why--more money chasing the same amount of goods leads, on average, to an increase in prices. (Likewise, a large decrease in the money supply will eventually lead to lower prices because shopkeepers will find their shelves overstocked and lower their prices to try to entice more people to buy, although there the decrease in sales may also lead to them going out of business.)Moheban also makes some fairly optimistic assumptions that foreign investors will be willing to buy U.S. Treasury bonds indefinitely. The returns are terrible for those, not enough to meet inflation even now, at least when you consider the true inflation and not the government CPI statistic. If investors (foreign or domestic) can find a place to put their money that depreciates less, then eventually (after they've had enough of losing in their returns) they will turn against Treasury bonds and dollar assets in general. It may not happen overnight, but to assume it isn't likely to happen seems overly optimistic.
The author's main thesis seems to be that the economy is so complex that it is impossible to predict what the future holds. No argument there... However, in "debunking" Schiff one of his claims is that a dollar earned in a service related transaction is no less valuable than one earned in an industrial transaction. This claim is made to refute Schiff's hollowing out of the American industrial base as a future source of US bankruptcy. In other words, the author seems to feel that Starbucks is no less a source of wealth than say Intel. It's an interesting claim and truth be told, I'm still undecided on the issue. However, the velocity of money or the pure changing hands of money is not what makes an economy prosper. I suspect it is more related to the productivity gains enabled by capital investment. If true, there is a difference between Starbucks and Intel.Another claim by the author is that the the dollar (or any currency) works because we believe it is valuable. Since fiat currency has "worked" for 75 years, the author feels there is little reason to believe that people's opinion of the dollar will change and it is only a complete loss of faith in currency that allows for hyperinflation. This argument seems dubious. For one thing, the US has never had such huge unfunded liabilities as we do now. He does address this in the book, but less than convincingly in my opinion.Similarly, he claims that gold is no more authentic or valuable than fiat currency. Again, his argument fails to convince. The main argument in favor of gold is that it cannot be printed up at will. This distinction seems not to register with the author. However, I suspect Germans felt their currency was innately valuable in the years before hyperinflation too. There is no refutation of gold in this book even if you buy his no hyperinflation scenarioAll in all, this brief book is worth reading and it may help allay some fears. In the end though, some of this debate is a bit academic. The dollar has lost 95% of its purchasing power since the creation of the Fed. Have we had hyperinflation? No, but you don't need true Zimbabwe/Weimar style hyperinflation to create huge problems and distortions.
This book presents 'the other side of the coin" of Peter Schiff's books 'how to crash proof your portfolio'. It dissects point by point all of Peter Schiff's assumptions regarding the coming collapse of the Dollar, the economy and the American way of life. It does not in my mind completely refutes the well presented arguments of Peter schiffs but strongly and wisely attenuates them. Both books are worth reading if you want to grasp 'both sides of the coin" and get a more balanced/sane picture.
An excellent book written by Richard Moheban. This unbiased book explains why the Austrian theory or Peter Schiff's political opinions about how the US monetary system is wrong. He gives you simple and easy to understand examples of how the demise of the dollar, a la, hyperinflation is a very remote possibility. He does give credit where credit is due. After reading this book, you'll wonder why your nutty neighbor is selling everything including his "fiat" dollars to buy a shiny rock that provides no interest and does not over the long term hold it's value to inflation. Please read all of the comments to this book. One thing you'll notice with the negative comments is a political bias and people that want to make quick money off of the bull market in the precious metals. This is no different than the psychology of the tech bubble and housing bubbles. Richard Moheban doesn't give you stock picks, or tell you what to invest in. He's not even running for US Senate. What he is doing is giving you an unbiased opinion of how the real US economy works in a way that any novice or economics professional can understand.
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